Quranic perspectives:

https://islamicstudies.info/reference.php?sura=42&verse=49-50

• The X post references Quran 42:49-50, which states that God controls fertility and creation, granting children (sons, daughters, or none) as He wills, in response to widespread concerns over global fertility declines, where rates have fallen to 2.24 births per woman in 2025 and are projected below replacement by 2050 per UN data.
• Author @Zs496S1, identifying as an “ordinary person,” consistently replies to anti-Muslim or anti-immigrant threads highlighting demographic shifts, attributing non-Muslim fertility drops (e.g., Hindus at 1.94 vs. Muslims at 2.36 in India per NFHS-5) to lifestyle choices like overwork and prejudice rather than external threats.
• This post fits a broader pattern of the author’s commentary, promoting reflection on divine sovereignty and socioeconomic drivers of low birth rates—such as economic pressures and gender norms—over fear-based narratives, as evidenced by peer-reviewed studies like those from Harvard linking cultural shifts to fertility trends.

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• The post challenges Elon Musk’s call for immediate birth rate increases by questioning if AI “humanoids” could replace human labor, potentially exacerbating unemployment and crime, while critiquing societal phobias toward migrants.
• Musk has repeatedly warned about population collapse due to sub-replacement fertility rates in developed nations, with his December 5, 2025, post echoing concerns shared by demographers since the 2010s.
• Global total fertility rate has declined to approximately 2.3 births per woman in 2023-2025 projections, below the 2.1 replacement level in many countries, supported by UN data showing accelerated drops in East Asia and Europe.

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• Global total fertility rate has declined to approximately 2.3 births per woman in 2023-2025 projections, below the 2.1 replacement level in many countries, supported by UN data showing accelerated drops in East Asia and Europe.

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Global fertility rates have been declining steadily for decades, with the United Nations estimating the worldwide total fertility rate (TFR)—the average number of children per woman—at around 2.23 in 2025, down from 2.41 in 2024 and far below the peak of about 5 in 1950. 10 This trend is particularly acute in developed regions: Europe’s TFR is about 1.4, North America’s is 1.6, and East Asia’s has dropped to as low as 1.0 in countries like China and South Korea. 11 While total global population is still growing due to momentum from past high birth rates, projections suggest it could peak around 2084 at 10.3 billion before declining, driven by sub-replacement fertility (below 2.1) in over 90% of countries with advanced economies. 16 The causes include economic pressures (e.g., high housing and childcare costs), delayed marriage and parenthood, increased education and workforce participation for women, cultural shifts toward smaller families, and access to contraception.

Suggestions and Plans to Improve Birth Rates

Governments, think tanks, and experts have proposed a wide range of strategies, often combining financial incentives, policy reforms, and cultural changes. These draw from experiences in countries like France (which has maintained a relatively higher TFR of ~1.8 through family supports), Hungary (aggressive pro-natal policies), and Nordic nations (gender-equitable parental leave). Here’s a breakdown of common suggestions, including both conservative and progressive ideas:

1. Financial Incentives and Economic Supports:

• Baby Bonuses and Child Allowances: Direct cash payments or tax credits per child, scaling up for additional children (e.g., $5,000–$10,000 bonuses for the third or fourth child). Hungary offers lifetime tax exemptions for mothers with four or more children, while proposals in the U.S. under the Trump administration include “baby bonuses” and expanded IVF access. 51 52
• Housing and Cost-of-Living Relief: Subsidized family housing, low-interest loans for homes, or zoning reforms to create child-friendly neighborhoods (e.g., gated family zones with no traffic, as suggested in some discussions). 49 Addressing affordability is key, as high costs often delay family formation.
• Universal Basic Income (UBI) or Expanded Welfare: Progressive ideas include UBI, single-payer healthcare, and free higher education to reduce financial barriers to parenthood. 45 This could make early family-starting viable without sacrificing careers.

1. Work-Life Balance and Family Policies:

• Paid Parental Leave and Childcare: Extended, paid leave for both parents (e.g., 12–18 months, as in Sweden) and subsidized or free high-quality childcare. Studies show combining cash benefits with childcare can boost TFR by 0.1–0.2 in high-income countries. 4 9
• Flexible Work Arrangements: Mandate remote/hybrid options, shorter workweeks for parents, or “family-track” sabbaticals at universities and employers to align with women’s fertility windows (peak in early 30s). 48
• Education Reforms: Shorten academic tracks for women, provide fertility education in schools (e.g., on the risks of delaying parenthood past 30), and offer on-campus housing for student parents. 47 50

1. Cultural and Social Shifts:

• Promote Marriage and Family Norms: Public campaigns normalizing marriage in the mid-20s and portraying parenthood positively, countering “anti-natalist” narratives. Israel has seen some success with pro-natal messaging, lifting TFR slightly despite challenges. 50
• Community Building: Increase funding for co-ed activities like sports leagues, maker spaces, or community events to foster organic relationships and reduce loneliness. 48 Regulate dating apps to limit addictive features and encourage real-world connections.
• Address Male Pathways: Expand apprenticeships and trades for young men to achieve financial stability by age 20–23, making them more “marriageable.” 48

1. Conservative or Restrictive Measures (More Controversial):

• Abortion and Divorce Reforms: Ban or restrict abortion, redirect funds to adoption and pregnancy support; end no-fault divorce to stabilize marriages. 43 44
• Content and Tax Policies: Ban pornography, tax “DINK” (dual-income, no kids) households higher, or limit monetization on platforms like OnlyFans for under-25s to shift incentives toward family life. 44 48
• Immigration Controls: Some argue tightening borders reduces reliance on migrants and forces focus on native births, though this doesn’t directly boost fertility. 25

Ongoing plans include China’s shift from one-child to three-child policies (with added supports like extended maternity leave), but these focus on preferences rather than mandates. 30 In the U.S., the Heritage Foundation (linked to Project 2025) advocates education reforms to encourage earlier family formation, while the White House explores fertility-boosting ideas like menstrual education. 53 55 Globally, the UN emphasizes equitable policies over coercive ones. 6

Are Current Actions Fruitful Yet?

Not significantly, based on recent data. Global TFR dropped ~9% from 2023 to 2024, with projections for another decline in 2025 affecting most countries. 15 Policies in places like China have slowed but not reversed the decline—its TFR fell to 1.02 despite reforms, leading to a shrinking workforce and aging crisis. 0 30 In the U.S., the birth rate has declined ~2% annually since 2007, now at 1.6, despite some state-level incentives. 2 Hungary’s aggressive subsidies have lifted TFR from 1.23 to ~1.5, but it’s still below replacement and costly (~$1 million per added birth in some estimates). 7

Positive effects are seen in targeted policies: Cash + childcare combos have modestly increased rates in France and Nordic countries by 0.1–0.3, and education reforms could boost married fertility significantly if scaled. 3 5 However, no country has achieved a sustained reversal once below 1.5–1.6, as cultural and economic factors persist. Experts note that while declines can spur economic growth short-term (via higher savings and labor participation), long-term aging strains pensions, innovation, and GDP—advanced economies (90%+ of global GDP) are hit hardest. 1 Overall, current efforts are insufficient; broader, multi-pronged approaches are needed, but success may take generations to manifest.

Efforts to Increase Fertility Rates Around the World

Many countries facing below-replacement fertility rates (typically under 2.1 children per woman) have implemented pronatalist policies, including financial incentives, expanded parental leave, subsidized childcare, and assisted reproductive technologies (ART). These efforts aim to address demographic challenges like aging populations and shrinking workforces. However, results are mixed: while some policies have led to short-term birth increases or shifts in timing, sustained long-term rises in total fertility rates (TFR) are rare, often due to underlying economic, cultural, and social factors. Below, I highlight current efforts in select countries with evidence of tangible impacts, drawing from recent data (2023-2025 where available). Countries like Singapore and Germany have similar incentives (e.g., child allowances), but show no significant fertility upticks.

South Korea

South Korea has invested heavily in pronatalist measures, spending over 2% of GDP on family benefits like extended parental leave (up to 18 months), childcare subsidies, and cash incentives for families. Recent efforts include the 2024 “Low Birth Rate Countermeasures” plan, which expanded housing loans for young families and increased paternity leave uptake. These have coincided with a notable rebound: births rose 3.6% in 2024 to 238,300, the first annual increase in nine years. 58 In 2025, births surged for 15 consecutive months, with September up 8.6% year-over-year to 22,369—the highest for that month since records began. 56 The TFR climbed from 0.74 in 2024 to 0.80 by August 2025, on track to exceed 0.8 for the year, marking the largest increase in 18 years. 59 60 Experts attribute this to improved economic confidence and policy accessibility, though the TFR remains the world’s lowest among OECD nations.

Poland

The “Family 500+” program, launched in 2016 and expanded through 2025, provides monthly cash transfers of about $125 per child (starting from the second child, extended to all in 2019) to alleviate child-rearing costs. Additional 2025 measures include a new family support policy with tax breaks and housing aid. Impacts include a 1.5% increase in childbirth odds for women aged 31-40 (0.7-1.8 percentage point rise in fertility), though younger women (21-30) saw decreases as they delayed parenthood. 27 28 Overall, child poverty dropped significantly, family relations improved for 15% of recipients, and time spent with children rose for 14%. 29 35 However, Poland’s TFR hit a record low of 1.03 in 2025, suggesting limited broad impact amid economic pressures. 30

Russia

Russia’s “Maternity Capital” program, introduced in 2007 and updated through 2025, offers lump-sum payments (around $7,000 in 2025) for second and subsequent children, usable for housing, education, or pensions. Recent expansions include payments to young mothers and integration with war-related family support. It initially boosted the TFR, increasing second-birth probabilities by 2.1% and overall fertility fractions for two or more children. 47 48 55 Regional programs have raised fertility by up to 20% over a decade in some areas. 54 The TFR stabilized around 1.38 in 2025, but declines persist due to ongoing conflicts and economic instability. 51

Hungary

Hungary allocates 6% of GDP—the world’s highest—to family policies, including lifetime tax exemptions for mothers of four or more children, low-interest loans forgiven after multiple births, and grandparental childcare subsidies. These were touted at the 2023 Budapest Demographic Summit as successes. The TFR rose 27% from 1.25 in 2010 to 1.59 in 2021, with annual births stabilizing around 90,000-92,000. 24 However, this is largely due to slowed postponement of childbearing (mean age at first birth up only 0.7 years from 2010-2020), not a true increase in lifetime fertility. Tempo-adjusted measures show no quantum rise, and completed fertility for recent cohorts continues declining. 24

Czechia

Czechia emphasizes subsidized ART, with insurance covering up to four IVF cycles for women under 40. This has doubled ART usage over 15 years, with 5% of children born via assisted reproduction by 2025. 41 It reduced childlessness and boosted fertility rates for women over 35, contributing 0.05-0.10 to the TFR through decomposition analysis. 39 46 Demand surged in 2023-2025, aiding a partial recovery from post-1990 declines (TFR from 1.13 in 1999 to around 1.6 recently), though overall postponement persists. 42 44

Israel

Israel subsidizes IVF extensively, covering treatments until two children are born, regardless of marital status. This supports a high TFR of 2.9 in 2022 (down slightly but above replacement), the highest in the OECD. 21 The policy has sustained elevated fertility, particularly among secular and religious groups, with ART adding meaningfully to birth numbers amid cultural pronatalism.

Other Notable Examples

• Sweden and France: High public spending (over 3% of GDP) on family benefits like paid grandparental leave and universal childcare correlates with Europe’s higher TFRs (around 1.5-1.9). No dramatic recent increases, but policies maintain stability by addressing work-life balance. 20 23
• China: Shifted from one-child to three-child policy (2021), with 2025 subsidies of ~$500/year per child under three. Despite widespread implementation, TFR fell to ~1.0 by 2023, with no sustained birth rise due to high costs and pessimism. 26

In summary, while policies like cash transfers and ART subsidies have yielded modest, targeted gains (e.g., higher-order births or older-age fertility), no country has fully reversed declines without broader societal shifts. Experts note that childcare expansions can add up to 0.2 to TFR, but economic security and gender equity are key for lasting impact. 21 23